Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted following the February 28 US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran, with volumes hovering near a virtual standstill despite a recent ceasefire. Data from April showed only seven vessels passing in 24 hours against a normal flow of 140, and by June, daily transits averaged just 39 compared to the 2025 baseline of nearly 60 commercial vessels [1][3]. Even after a US-Iran deal in June permitted toll-free passage for 60 days, tanker traffic reached only 25 vessels on a single day, roughly a quarter of pre-conflict levels, while insurers demand tangible evidence of fundamental threat stabilization before resuming coverage [8][9].

The 14% crowd-implied probability reflects the immense structural hurdles to reaching the settlement threshold of a 7-day moving average of 60 arrivals. Historical precedents indicate that mere pauses in hostilities do not suffice; underwriters require lasting ceasefires, clear naval security assurances, and credible mine-clearance efforts, with the US estimating up to six months to eliminate suspected Iranian mines [9]. Traders must monitor the International Maritime Organization’s stalled evacuation plan for 600 stranded ships and any announcements regarding the removal of naval blockades, as sporadic transits will not trigger a “Yes” resolution without consistent, sustained normalization over an extended period [6][8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

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