Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
80% | 20% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
80% | 20% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Nicolás Maduro | 80% |
| Delcy Rodríguez | 12% |
| María Corina Machado | 4% |
| Jorge Rodríguez | 1% |
| No Head of State | 1% |
| Edmundo González | 1% |
| Diosdado Cabello Rondón | 0% |
| Dinorah Figuera | 0% |
| Vladimir Padrino López | 0% |
| Evan Pettus | 0% |
| Dan Caine | 0% |
| Leader 2 | 0% |
| Leader 4 | 0% |
| Leader 6 | 0% |
| Leader 8 | 0% |
| Leader 10 | 0% |
| Leader 12 | 0% |
| Leader 14 | 0% |
| Leader 16 | 0% |
| Leader 18 | 0% |
| Leader 20 | 0% |
| Leader 22 | 0% |
| Leader 24 | 0% |
| Leader 26 | 0% |
| Leader 28 | 0% |
| Leader 30 | 0% |
| Leader 32 | 0% |
| Leader 34 | 0% |
| Leader 36 | 0% |
| Leader 38 | 0% |
| Leader 40 | 0% |
| Donald Trump | 0% |
| Marco Rubio | 0% |
| Pete Hegseth | 0% |
| Frank Donovan | 0% |
| Richard Grenell | 0% |
| Leader 1 | 0% |
| Leader 3 | 0% |
| Leader 5 | 0% |
| Leader 7 | 0% |
| Leader 9 | 0% |
| Leader 11 | 0% |
| Leader 13 | 0% |
| Leader 15 | 0% |
| Leader 17 | 0% |
| Leader 19 | 0% |
| Leader 21 | 0% |
| Leader 23 | 0% |
| Leader 25 | 0% |
| Leader 27 | 0% |
| Leader 29 | 0% |
| Leader 31 | 0% |
| Leader 33 | 0% |
| Leader 35 | 0% |
| Leader 37 | 0% |
| Leader 39 | 0% |
| Other | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 80% chance of venezuela leader end of 2026?. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "offic…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Venezuela leader end of 2026?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
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