Elon Musk # tweets August 11 - August 18, 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Elon Musk’s X posting pace is the key variable here: the market resolves on main-feed posts, quote posts and reposts only, with replies excluded unless they appear on the main feed and are captured by the tracker. The live tracker currently shows **0 tweets** for the August 11 to August 18 window, but that reflects the fact the window has not started rather than a settled signal on activity.[1][2]

The useful historical frame is that Musk’s output can swing sharply with product launches, policy fights and media cycles, so a near-zero crowd price is only robust if he stays quiet or uses replies rather than counted posts. Polymarket’s own August 2026 market page says Musk’s baseline posting rate is often **30–70 tweets daily** across business updates, political commentary and live reactions, which would make even a short burst enough to push the total far above the low 0% assumption if that pattern holds.[11] Recent coverage around DOGE’s overstated federal savings claims also shows he is still in a news-driving phase where external developments can trigger rapid posting.[14]

Traders should watch for any scheduled product, political or regulatory flashpoints in that seven-day span, plus any changes in how the tracker captures deleted posts, since posts that remain live for about five minutes still count.[2] Because the market’s settlement window ends at **2026-08-18 16:00:00Z**, activity late on August 18 is especially important: a concentrated late-day posting run, or a quiet stretch after a major announcement, could matter more than the early-window pace.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Elon Musk # tweets August 11 - August 18, 2026?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.