Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ships are currently barred from the Strait of Hormuz after Iran announced a renewed closure on 21 June, halting flows of roughly 21% of global oil supply. The strait has been shut to most commercial traffic for over 100 days, with more than 150 vessels stranded and throughput under 2% of normal levels. Despite this, a 14-point interim agreement signed digitally by US and Iranian leaders on 17 June includes full resumption of maritime traffic and lifting of the US blockade on Iranian ports, with Iran’s foreign ministry stating the deal is already in effect.

Historical precedents for Hormuz closures show extreme volatility but rapid reversals once diplomatic deals are confirmed. The strait briefly reopened on 21 April 2026 before closing again the next day, yet the current 14-point agreement appears more comprehensive than prior ad hoc pauses. Past closures averaging 30–40 days resolved within weeks after high-level negotiations, supporting the 89% crowd-implied probability that transit calls will reach the 60-per-day threshold by December 2026.

Traders must monitor the implementation timeline of the 17 June deal, particularly whether MarineTraffic and IMF PortWatch data confirm sustained vessel movements within the next 30 days. Key catalysts include Iran’s compliance with lifting port blockades, the absence of further Israeli or US military strikes, and weekly transit reports from the Strait of Hormuz Live Tracker. Reuters reported on 22 June that four Qatari LNG carriers entered the strait despite the closure, suggesting early compliance with the interim agreement [2]. Any delay in full resumption could threaten the market’s resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

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