SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13

Platform comparison

Market context

SpaceX’s thirteenth Starship flight test, scheduled for a 5:45 p.m. CT window on Thursday, 16 July, was cleanly aborted at T‑0 when several engines failed to start, preventing liftoff [1][2]. Elon Musk confirmed the automatic abort and indicated a re‑attempt “hopefully” in a few days, though SpaceX has not yet disclosed the specific cause [2][4]. The vehicle pair—Booster 20 and Ship 40, both Block 3—had cleared all major pre‑flight checks, including a full 33‑engine static fire on 10 July and FAA launch clearance, with no range or pad issues tracked at the time of the abort [3][6].

Historically, Starship’s early test campaign has seen multiple T‑0 and countdown aborts that were resolved within days, with Flight 9 and Flight 11 both recovering quickly after engine‑start anomalies and proceeding to successful splashdowns [2][9]. The 0% crowd‑implied probability for a “YES” outcome reflects the immediate abort rather than a systemic failure; in prior cases, similar engine‑start faults did not derail the test series, and the programme’s trajectory has been to recycle rapidly rather than suspend flights [2][4].

Traders should watch for an official SpaceX announcement on the abort cause and the next scheduled launch window, which Musk suggested could be within a few days [4]. Key dependencies include the outcome of the post‑abort data review, any required engine‑system fixes on Booster 20, and the next range‑status confirmation for Pad 2 at Starbase [3][6]. A re‑attempt date and a green range status will be the primary catalysts that could shift probability from zero toward a successful test [1][4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.