Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
82% | 18% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
82% | 18% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Arthur Fery Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 82% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Arthur Fery | 69% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Arthur Fery Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 65% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Arthur Fery Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 65% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Arthur Fery Set 2 Winner | 62% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Arthur Fery Set 1 Winner | 62% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Arthur Fery Set 3 Winner | 62% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Arthur Fery Match O/U 36.5 | 59% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Arthur Fery Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 57% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Arthur Fery Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 55% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Arthur Fery Match O/U 38.5 | 54% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Arthur Fery Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Arthur Fery Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Arthur Fery Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Arthur Fery Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Arthur Fery Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Arthur Fery Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Arthur Fery Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Arthur Fery Match O/U 40.5 | 46% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Arthur Fery Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 44% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Arthur Fery Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 34% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Arthur Fery Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 33% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Arthur Fery Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 30% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Arthur Fery Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 27% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Arthur Fery Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 21% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Arthur Fery Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 9% |
Market context
Market consensus: 82% chance of wimbledon atp: grigor dimitrov vs arthur fery. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Grigor Dimitrov and Arthur Fery in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for July 6, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve t…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Wimbledon ATP: Grigor Dimitrov vs Arthur Fery. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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