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Segovia: Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Miguel Tobon

How the prediction market is pricing "Segovia: Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Miguel Tobon" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

Segovia: Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Miguel Tobon 100% Completed Match 100% Segovia: Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Miguel Tobon Set 2 Winner 100% Segovia: Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Miguel Tobon Set 2 O/U 8.5 100% Volume: $114K Closes: 27 Jul 2026
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Segovia: Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Miguel Tobon

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Segovia: Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Miguel Tobon100%
Completed Match100%
Segovia: Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Miguel Tobon Set 2 Winner100%
Segovia: Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Miguel Tobon Set 2 O/U 8.5100%
Segovia: Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Miguel Tobon Set 1 O/U 8.5100%
Segovia: Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Miguel Tobon Total Sets: O/U 2.5100%
Segovia: Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Miguel Tobon Match O/U 21.5100%
Segovia: Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Miguel Tobon Match O/U 22.5100%
Segovia: Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Miguel Tobon Set 1 O/U 9.5100%
Segovia: Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Miguel Tobon Match O/U 23.5100%
Segovia: Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Miguel Tobon Set 1 O/U 10.5100%
Segovia: Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Miguel Tobon Set 1 Winner0%
Segovia: Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Miguel Tobon Set Handicap +/-1.50%
Segovia: Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Miguel Tobon Set 2 O/U 9.50%
Segovia: Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Miguel Tobon Set Handicap +/-1.50%
Segovia: Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Miguel Tobon Set 2 O/U 10.50%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to segovia: mario gonzalez fernandez vs miguel tobon. This market refers to the tennis match between Mario Gonzalez Fernandez and Miguel Tobon in the Segovia, originally scheduled for July 20, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mario Gonzal…

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Segovia: Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Miguel Tobon. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?
Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
Can I import form data and lineups?
This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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