Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs Joel Schwaerzler | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs Joel Schwaerzler Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs Joel Schwaerzler Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs Joel Schwaerzler Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs Joel Schwaerzler Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs Joel Schwaerzler Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs Joel Schwaerzler Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs Joel Schwaerzler Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs Joel Schwaerzler Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs Joel Schwaerzler Game Spread +/-1.5 | 1% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs Joel Schwaerzler Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs Joel Schwaerzler Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs Joel Schwaerzler Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs Joel Schwaerzler Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs Joel Schwaerzler Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs Joel Schwaerzler Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of us open, qualification atp: andrea guerrieri vs joel schwaerzler. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Andrea Guerrieri and Joel Schwaerzler in the US Open, Qualification ATP, originally scheduled for August 26, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. Thi…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for US Open, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs Joel Schwaerzler. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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