Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Wimbledon ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hubert Hurkacz Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hubert Hurkacz Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hubert Hurkacz Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hubert Hurkacz Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hubert Hurkacz Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hubert Hurkacz Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hubert Hurkacz Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hubert Hurkacz Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hubert Hurkacz Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hubert Hurkacz Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hubert Hurkacz Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hubert Hurkacz Match O/U 36.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hubert Hurkacz Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hubert Hurkacz | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hubert Hurkacz Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hubert Hurkacz Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hubert Hurkacz Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hubert Hurkacz Match O/U 38.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hubert Hurkacz Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hubert Hurkacz Match O/U 40.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hubert Hurkacz Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hubert Hurkacz Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hubert Hurkacz Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hubert Hurkacz Set 3 Winner | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of wimbledon atp: casper ruud vs hubert hurkacz. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Casper Ruud and Hubert Hurkacz in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve t…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Wimbledon ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hubert Hurkacz. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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