Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
24% | 76% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
24% | 76% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Vitality | 24% |
| Falcons | 21% |
| Spirit | 21% |
| FURIA | 11% |
| G2 | 6% |
| MOUZ | 5% |
| Aurora | 4% |
| FUT | 4% |
| The MongolZ | 3% |
| HEROIC | 3% |
| GamerLegion | 2% |
| Astralis | 2% |
| Liquid | 2% |
| Nemesis | 2% |
| magic | 1% |
| paiN | 1% |
| FaZe | 1% |
| M80 | 1% |
| Ninjas in Pyjamas | 1% |
| Alliance | 1% |
| EYEBALLERS | 1% |
| Sharks | 1% |
| FOKUS | 1% |
| 100 Thieves | 1% |
| OG | 1% |
| Nemiga | 1% |
| 3DMAX | 0% |
| Gentle Mates | 0% |
| Wildcard | 0% |
| SINNERS | 0% |
| Nuclear TigeRES | 0% |
| HOTU | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 24% YES probability for BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2: Qualify to LAN. This market will resolve according to the 8 teams that make BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2 LAN Finals, scheduled for July 30 to August 2, 2026 at BLAST Studio in Malta. If BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2 is p…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2: Qualify to LAN. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
Trade BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2: Qualify to LAN on World Cup 2026 Favorites
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