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Virginia vs. SMU

"Virginia vs. SMU" — live football odds plus comparison across the four major prediction venues.

O/U 35.5 85% O/U 37.5 84% 2Q O/U 7.5 83% O/U 39.5 80% Volume: $93K Liquidity: $1.1M Closes: 17 Oct 2026
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Virginia vs. SMU

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 85% 15% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 85% 15% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
O/U 35.585%
O/U 37.584%
2Q O/U 7.583%
O/U 39.580%
Spread -0.576%
O/U 41.576%
4Q O/U 7.576%
SMU O/U 23.576%
Spread -1.575%
Spread -2.574%
O/U 43.572%
2Q O/U 10.569%
Spread -3.568%
Spread -4.566%
O/U 45.566%
1H Spread -2.565%
Spread -5.563%
O/U 47.563%
3Q O/U 7.563%
Spread -6.562%
1Q O/U 7.561%
4Q O/U 10.561%
2Q O/U 13.560%
SMU O/U 26.560%
SMU O/U 29.557%
2H Spread -0.557%
O/U 49.556%
SMU 2H O/U 12.556%
1H Spread -4.556%
2H Spread -2.556%
1Q Spread -2.556%
2Q Spread -0.556%
Spread -7.555%
1H Spread -5.555%
2Q Spread -2.555%
1Q Spread -0.554%
Spread -8.553%
1H O/U 24.553%
4Q O/U 13.553%
SMU 1H O/U 14.553%
Virginia O/U 20.552%
Spread -9.552%
1H Spread -6.552%
O/U 51.551%
1H O/U 21.551%
Virginia 2H O/U 11.551%
2H Spread -3.551%
4Q Spread -0.551%
Spread -20.550%
1H O/U 33.550%
2H O/U 21.550%
2H O/U 24.550%
2H O/U 33.550%
Virginia O/U 26.550%
Virginia O/U 29.550%
Virginia O/U 32.550%
Virginia 1H O/U 11.550%
Virginia 1H O/U 15.550%
SMU 1H O/U 12.550%
Virginia 2H O/U 15.550%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q250%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q150%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q450%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q350%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown50%
Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown50%
Pick-Six Scored50%
Virginia Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.550%
Virginia Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.550%
SMU Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.550%
SMU Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.550%
SMU Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.550%
Virginia Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.550%
Virginia Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.550%
Virginia Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.550%
SMU Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.550%
SMU Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.550%
Virginia Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.550%
SMU Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.550%
Virginia Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.550%
SMU Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.550%
Virginia Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.550%
SMU Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.550%
Virginia Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.550%
Virginia Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.550%
SMU Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.550%
Virginia Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.550%
SMU Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.550%
SMU Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.550%
SMU Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.550%
Virginia 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.550%
Virginia 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.550%
SMU 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.550%
Virginia Field Goals Made: O/U 1.550%
Virginia Field Goals Made: O/U 2.550%
Virginia Field Goals Made: O/U 0.550%
SMU 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.550%
SMU Field Goals Made: O/U 0.550%
SMU Field Goals Made: O/U 1.550%
SMU Field Goals Made: O/U 2.550%
Virginia Total Receptions: O/U 14.550%
Virginia Total Receptions: O/U 19.550%
Virginia Total Receptions: O/U 24.550%
SMU Total Receptions: O/U 14.550%
SMU Total Receptions: O/U 19.550%
SMU Total Receptions: O/U 24.550%
Virginia Total First Downs: O/U 19.550%
Virginia Total First Downs: O/U 21.550%
SMU Total First Downs: O/U 21.550%
SMU Total First Downs: O/U 23.550%
SMU Total First Downs: O/U 19.550%
Virginia Total First Downs: O/U 23.550%
Virginia vs. SMU: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.550%
Virginia vs. SMU: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.550%
1Q Spread -5.550%
2Q Spread -5.550%
3Q Spread -1.550%
3Q Spread -0.550%
3Q Spread -1.550%
3Q Spread -5.550%
4Q Spread -1.550%
4Q Spread -5.550%
2H Moneyline50%
2Q Moneyline50%
3Q Moneyline50%
4Q Moneyline50%
2Q Spread -3.549%
3Q O/U 10.548%
SMU 1H O/U 16.548%
2H Spread -4.548%
1Q Spread -3.548%
4Q Spread -1.548%
Spread -10.547%
3Q Spread -2.547%
1H O/U 27.546%
1Q O/U 10.546%
O/U 53.545%
2Q O/U 16.545%
SMU O/U 32.545%
4Q Spread -2.545%
3Q O/U 13.544%
SMU 2H O/U 14.544%
Both Teams to Score Points - Q244%
1H Spread -7.544%
2H Spread -5.544%
1Q Spread -4.544%
3Q Spread -3.543%
Spread -13.542%
Virginia 2H O/U 13.542%
Virginia vs. SMU: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.542%
2Q Spread -4.542%
SMU 2H O/U 16.541%
1H Spread -9.541%
O/U 55.540%
2H O/U 27.540%
1Q O/U 13.540%
Virginia O/U 23.540%
SMU O/U 35.540%
Both Teams to Score Points - Q440%
Spread -14.538%
Virginia 1H O/U 13.538%
Virginia Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.538%
4Q Spread -3.538%
O/U 57.536%
1H O/U 30.536%
Spread -16.535%
4Q O/U 16.535%
Both Teams to Score Points - Q134%
Both Teams to Score Points - Q334%
Virginia vs. SMU: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.534%
2H Spread -7.534%
2Q O/U 19.533%
SMU O/U 3.533%
O/U 59.532%
Spread -17.531%
Virginia O/U 2.531%
Virginia vs. SMU: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.530%
1Q Moneyline30%
O/U 61.528%
2H O/U 30.528%
Virginia vs. SMU: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.527%
Spread -20.526%
Game Goes to Overtime26%
2Q Spread -7.526%
1H Moneyline26%
O/U 63.525%
3Q O/U 16.525%
Virginia vs. SMU24%
Spread -0.524%
1Q O/U 16.523%
Spread -1.522%
O/U 65.522%
1Q Spread -7.522%
Spread -2.521%
4Q O/U 19.519%
Spread -3.517%
O/U 67.517%
1Q O/U 19.517%
3Q O/U 19.517%
Spread -4.515%
O/U 69.515%
Spread -5.514%
O/U 71.514%
Spread -6.513%
Spread -8.512%
O/U 75.511%
Spread -7.510%
O/U 73.59%
Spread -17.57%
Spread -16.57%
Spread -10.57%
Spread -13.55%
Spread -14.53%

Market context

The Virginia vs. SMU prediction market currently prices this outcome at 85% YES. In the upcoming college football game between Virginia and SMU, scheduled for October 17 at 12:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Virginia" if Virginia win the game. This market will resolve to "SM…

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices O/U 35.5 at 85% for "Virginia vs. SMU".

O/U 35.5 85% Other 15%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $93K.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Virginia vs. SMU. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
Can I import form data and lineups?
This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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