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Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup Survival

How the prediction market is pricing "Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup Survival" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

Match Winner 65% Game 1 Winner 60% Game 2 Winner 59% Any Player Ultra Kill 56% Volume: $72K Liquidity: $422K Closes: 14 Jul 2026
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Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup Survival

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
65% 35% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
65% 35% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Match Winner65%
Game 1 Winner60%
Game 2 Winner59%
Any Player Ultra Kill56%
Both Teams Beat Roshan52%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks52%
Any Player Rampage52%
First Blood in Game 2?52%
First Blood in Game 1?52%
Ends in Daytime51%
Ends in Daytime51%
Ends in Daytime51%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2?51%
O/U 2.5 Games48%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1?48%
Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs Xtreme Gaming (+1.5)37%
Any Player Ultra Kill32%
Both Teams Beat Roshan31%
Any Player Ultra Kill31%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks28%
Both Teams Beat Roshan28%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks28%
Any Player Rampage26%
Any Player Rampage26%

Market context

The Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup Survival prediction market currently prices this outcome at 65% YES. This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 1 match between Team Liquid and Xtreme Gaming in the Esports World Cup Survival, initially scheduled for July 14 at 10:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Tea…

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup Survival. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?
Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
Can I bet on individual matches?
Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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