Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 3+ shots | 100% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Sadio Mané: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ shots | 98% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots | 95% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots | 90% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ shots | 87% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 4+ shots | 77% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ shots | 70% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots | 65% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ shots | 62% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 5+ shots | 55% |
| Jeremy Doku: 4+ shots | 55% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots | 54% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 5+ shots | 54% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ shots | 53% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ shots | 53% |
| Leandro Trossard: 4+ shots | 53% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ shots | 53% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ goals + assists | 53% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 2+ saves | 52% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 3+ shots | 52% |
| Sadio Mané: 3+ shots | 52% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 4+ shots | 51% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ shots | 51% |
| Sadio Mané: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Sadio Mané: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Sadio Mané: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Edouard Mendy: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Edouard Mendy: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Sadio Mané: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Sadio Mané: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sadio Mané: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sadio Mané: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sadio Mané: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sadio Mané: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sadio Mané: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Bamba Dieng: 1+ goals | 49% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 1+ goals | 49% |
| Leandro Trossard: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Leandro Trossard: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Edouard Mendy: 2+ saves | 47% |
| Edouard Mendy: 5+ saves | 47% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 5+ shots | 47% |
| Jeremy Doku: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Sadio Mané: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ shots | 45% |
| Jeremy Doku: 5+ shots | 38% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals | 36% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 4+ shots | 34% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals | 33% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 1+ shots | 33% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 1+ goals | 26% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 2+ shots | 26% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists | 25% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ assists | 25% |
| Sadio Mané: 3+ goals | 23% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ assists | 23% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals + assists | 22% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ goals | 18% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Sadio Mané: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Bamba Dieng: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Bamba Dieng: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Sadio Mané: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Sadio Mané: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ shots | 11% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ shots | 5% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Sadio Mané: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 4+ shots | 1% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ assists | 1% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ goals | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, belgium vs. senegal - player props stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Belgium and Senegal, scheduled for July 1 at 4:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Belgium vs. Senegal - Player Props. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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