Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
91% | 9% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
91% | 9% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots | 91% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots | 87% |
| Ayase Ueda: 1+ shots | 78% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots | 76% |
| Casemiro: 1+ shots | 68% |
| Rayan: 1+ shots | 67% |
| Keito Nakamura: 1+ shots | 66% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots | 62% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 1+ shots | 56% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals + assists | 54% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ shots | 53% |
| Endrick: 1+ shots | 53% |
| Neymar Jr: 1+ shots | 52% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Daizen Maeda: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Luiz Henrique: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Igor Thiago: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Matheus Cunha: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Raphinha: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Danilo Santos: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Koki Ogawa: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Luiz Henrique: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ayase Ueda: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ayase Ueda: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Casemiro: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Daizen Maeda: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Keito Nakamura: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Neymar Jr: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Neymar Jr: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Keito Nakamura: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Rayan: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Alisson: 5+ saves | 48% |
| Keisuke Ōsako: 3+ saves | 48% |
| Ayase Ueda: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Ayase Ueda: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Matheus Cunha: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Endrick: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Endrick: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Igor Thiago: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Endrick: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Endrick: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Luiz Henrique: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Raphinha: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Danilo Santos: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Koki Ogawa: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Koki Ogawa: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Luiz Henrique: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Luiz Henrique: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Daizen Maeda: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Keito Nakamura: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Neymar Jr: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Keito Nakamura: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Keito Nakamura: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Alisson: 2+ saves | 47% |
| Alisson: 4+ saves | 47% |
| Keisuke Ōsako: 2+ saves | 47% |
| Keisuke Ōsako: 4+ saves | 47% |
| Igor Thiago: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Igor Thiago: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Neymar Jr: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Raphinha: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Koki Ogawa: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Neymar Jr: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Rayan: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Ayase Ueda: 2+ shots | 46% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Casemiro: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Koki Ogawa: 1+ shots | 46% |
| Keisuke Ōsako: 5+ saves | 46% |
| Ayase Ueda: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Igor Thiago: 1+ shots | 44% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots on target | 42% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots on target | 39% |
| Casemiro: 1+ goals + assists | 39% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals | 38% |
| Neymar Jr: 1+ goals + assists | 37% |
| Daizen Maeda: 4+ goals + assists | 37% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 1+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ shots | 33% |
| Endrick: 2+ shots | 33% |
| Rayan: 1+ shots on target | 33% |
| Casemiro: 2+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 2+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals | 30% |
| Ayase Ueda: 1+ shots on target | 29% |
| Danilo Santos: 2+ goals + assists | 29% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shots | 28% |
| Daizen Maeda: 2+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 2+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Igor Thiago: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Koki Ogawa: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Alisson: 3+ saves | 27% |
| Neymar Jr: 2+ shots | 26% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Neymar Jr: 3+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Matheus Cunha: 4+ shots | 25% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assists | 24% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Keito Nakamura: 2+ shots | 23% |
| Danilo Santos: 3+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Rayan: 3+ goals + assists | 22% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 2+ shots | 22% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 2+ shots | 22% |
| Luiz Henrique: 3+ shots | 22% |
| Luiz Henrique: 5+ shots | 22% |
| Neymar Jr: 2+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Rayan: 1+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Rayan: 2+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Danilo Santos: 1+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 1+ shots on target | 20% |
| Casemiro: 1+ shots on target | 20% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ shots on target | 20% |
| Endrick: 3+ shots | 20% |
| Ayase Ueda: 3+ shots | 20% |
| Danilo Santos: 1+ shots | 20% |
| Danilo Santos: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Koki Ogawa: 5+ shots | 19% |
| Matheus Cunha: 5+ shots | 19% |
| Rayan: 3+ shots | 18% |
| Daizen Maeda: 2+ shots | 18% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ assists | 18% |
| Neymar Jr: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Daizen Maeda: 3+ goals + assists | 17% |
| Rayan: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Rayan: 2+ shots | 16% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Rayan: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 5+ shots | 14% |
| Casemiro: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Igor Thiago: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Rayan: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| Luiz Henrique: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Danilo Santos: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Ayase Ueda: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Endrick: 4+ shots | 13% |
| Endrick: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 3+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Ayase Ueda: 4+ shots | 13% |
| Luiz Henrique: 4+ shots | 13% |
| Rayan: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 3+ goals + assists | 12% |
| Daizen Maeda: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Neymar Jr: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals + assists | 12% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ shots on target | 11% |
| Koki Ogawa: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Daizen Maeda: 1+ goals + assists | 11% |
| Igor Thiago: 4+ shots | 11% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Rayan: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Luiz Henrique: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Koki Ogawa: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Igor Thiago: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Neymar Jr: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Casemiro: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Keito Nakamura: 1+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Rayan: 5+ shots | 9% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Ayase Ueda: 5+ shots | 9% |
| Endrick: 5+ shots | 9% |
| Keito Nakamura: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Neymar Jr: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Rayan: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Igor Thiago: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 3+ goals | 8% |
| Luiz Henrique: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Casemiro: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Igor Thiago: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Casemiro: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Keito Nakamura: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Koki Ogawa: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Raphinha: 1+ shots on target | 7% |
| Danilo Santos: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Igor Thiago: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Neymar Jr: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Daizen Maeda: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Endrick: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Neymar Jr: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Ayase Ueda: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Danilo Santos: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Danilo Santos: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Rayan: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Koki Ogawa: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Luiz Henrique: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Casemiro: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Daizen Maeda: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Keito Nakamura: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Danilo Santos: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Ayase Ueda: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Koki Ogawa: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Ayase Ueda: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Casemiro: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Neymar Jr: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Raphinha: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Raphinha: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Ayase Ueda: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Endrick: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Daizen Maeda: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Keito Nakamura: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Neymar Jr: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Raphinha: 1+ goals | 1% |
Market context
The Brazil vs. Japan - Player Props prediction market currently prices this outcome at 91% YES. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Brazil and Japan, scheduled for June 29 at 1:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Brazil vs. Japan - Player Props. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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