Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Luis Díaz: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Luis Suárez: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Jhon Arias: 1+ shots | 99% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 1+ shots on target | 99% |
| Luis Díaz: 2+ shots | 86% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ shots | 80% |
| Luis Suárez: 2+ shots | 53% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Gregor Kobel: 3+ saves | 51% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Richard Ríos: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Granit Xhaka: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Manuel Akanji: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Manuel Akanji: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Djibril Sow: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Richard Ríos: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Denis Zakaria: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jhon Lucumí: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Johan Mojica: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Johan Mojica: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Manuel Akanji: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nico Elvedi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Remo Freuler: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Rodriguez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| David Ospina: 2+ saves | 50% |
| David Ospina: 3+ saves | 50% |
| David Ospina: 4+ saves | 50% |
| David Ospina: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Gregor Kobel: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Gregor Kobel: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Gregor Kobel: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Djibril Sow: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Djibril Sow: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Djibril Sow: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Granit Xhaka: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Granit Xhaka: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jhon Arias: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Johan Manzambi: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Remo Freuler: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Remo Freuler: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Remo Freuler: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Remo Freuler: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Richard Ríos: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Richard Ríos: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Richard Ríos: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Richard Ríos: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Granit Xhaka: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Manuel Akanji: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Fabian Rieder: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Denis Zakaria: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Fabian Rieder: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fabian Rieder: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fabian Rieder: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fabian Rieder: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jhon Lucumí: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Jhon Lucumí: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Johan Mojica: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Nico Elvedi: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Nico Elvedi: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Remo Freuler: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Remo Freuler: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ assists | 49% |
| Jhon Arias: 1+ assists | 49% |
| Dan Ndoye: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Dan Ndoye: 4+ shots | 48% |
| Dan Ndoye: 5+ shots | 48% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 1+ shots | 48% |
| Johan Mojica: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Johan Mojica: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Remo Freuler: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Fabian Rieder: 1+ goals | 47% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 1+ shots | 33% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Jhon Arias: 2+ shots | 25% |
| Luis Díaz: 4+ shots | 25% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 4+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Djibril Sow: 3+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 4+ goals + assists | 23% |
| James Rodríguez: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Luis Suárez: 3+ shots | 21% |
| Denis Zakaria: 1+ shots | 20% |
| James Rodríguez: 1+ shots | 20% |
| Luis Díaz: 3+ shots | 20% |
| Luis Díaz: 5+ shots | 20% |
| Ricardo Rodriguez: 1+ shots | 20% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Fabian Rieder: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Jhon Córdoba: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Juan Fernando Quintero: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Richard Ríos: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Davinson Sánchez: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Djibril Sow: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Gustavo Puerta: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Remo Freuler: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Richard Ríos: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Fabian Rieder: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Denis Zakaria: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Denis Zakaria: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 4+ shots | 11% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Breel Embolo: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Breel Embolo: 5+ shots | 10% |
| James Rodríguez: 3+ shots | 10% |
| James Rodríguez: 4+ shots | 10% |
| James Rodríguez: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Jhon Arias: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Jhon Arias: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Jhon Arias: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Luis Suárez: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Ricardo Rodriguez: 2+ shots | 9% |
| Juan Fernando Quintero: 2+ goals | 8% |
| Luis Suárez: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Jhon Córdoba: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Luis Díaz: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Juan Fernando Quintero: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Remo Freuler: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals | 3% |
| Daniel Muñoz: 1+ goals | 2% |
| Jhon Córdoba: 1+ goals | 2% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Luis Díaz: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Luis Díaz: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Luis Díaz: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Luis Díaz: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ assists | 1% |
| James Rodríguez: 1+ assists | 1% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 1+ assists | 1% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Luis Suárez: 1+ assists | 1% |
| Luis Suárez: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ goals | 0% |
| James Rodríguez: 1+ goals | 0% |
| James Rodríguez: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Jefferson Lerma: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Jhon Arias: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Jhon Arias: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Luis Suárez: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Luis Suárez: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Luis Suárez: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Michel Aebischer: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Michel Aebischer: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ shots | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 5+ shots | 0% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ assists | 0% |
| James Rodríguez: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Jhon Arias: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ assists | 0% |
| James Rodríguez: 3+ goals | 0% |
Market context
The underlying event is the FIFA World Cup Round of 16 knockout match between Switzerland and Colombia, scheduled for 4:00 PM ET on 7 July at BC Place in Vancouver. This fixture carries zero crowd-implied probability for player props because no probable line-up has been released ahead of the tie, and neither team has confirmed injury or suspension details that would allow specific player outcomes to be priced [2]. In previous World Cup knockout rounds where line-ups remained unreleased until match day, player prop markets similarly collapsed to near-zero liquidity, as traders could not anchor bets to named individuals without official confirmation [1].
Traders must monitor the official FIFA match-day line-up announcement, which typically occurs one hour before kick-off, alongside any late press updates from coaches Nestor Lorenzo (Colombia) and Murat Yakin (Switzerland). Goal.com reports that Colombia’s coach has no confirmed injury or suspension news, yet no projected XI has been issued, leaving the market in a state of suspended pricing until the XI is public [2]. RotoWire predicts a 1-2 Colombia victory, suggesting offensive catalysts may centre on Colombia’s attacking midfielders, but this remains speculative until the squad list is confirmed [1]. The settlement window closes at 20:00 UTC on 7 July, meaning all player prop outcomes depend entirely on the final line-up and in-game events post-confirmation.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Switzerland vs. Colombia - Player Props. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
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