Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
83% | 17% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
83% | 17% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots | 83% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots | 78% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots | 61% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots | 60% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots | 57% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots | 57% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots | 54% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots | 54% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals | 53% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots on target | 53% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots | 53% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ shots | 52% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Eberechi Eze: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Théo Hernández: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jordan Pickford: 2+ saves | 49% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Declan Rice: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Elliot Anderson: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Rayan Cherki: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jordan Pickford: 3+ saves | 48% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lucas Digne: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Manu Koné: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Morgan Rogers: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Jules Koundé: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots | 47% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Declan Rice: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Elliot Anderson: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Théo Hernández: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Brice Samba: 2+ saves | 44% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots | 43% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots on target | 43% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots | 43% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ shots on target | 42% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots on target | 42% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ shots on target | 41% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots on target | 41% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ shots on target | 40% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Lucas Digne: 1+ shots on target | 40% |
| Brice Samba: 3+ saves | 39% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots | 38% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals | 37% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots on target | 37% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ shots on target | 37% |
| Jordan Pickford: 5+ saves | 36% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots | 36% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ shots | 36% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ shots on target | 36% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ shots on target | 36% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals + assists | 36% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots on target | 34% |
| Brice Samba: 4+ saves | 33% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots on target | 33% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ shots on target | 32% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ shots on target | 32% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots on target | 32% |
| Jules Koundé: 1+ shots | 31% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots on target | 31% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ shots | 30% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ shots | 30% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ shots on target | 30% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots on target | 30% |
| William Saliba: 1+ shots on target | 30% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Jordan Pickford: 4+ saves | 29% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals | 28% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Brice Samba: 5+ saves | 26% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ assists | 26% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals | 25% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots on target | 24% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots on target | 23% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots | 23% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists | 23% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ goals | 22% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ shots on target | 22% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals + assists | 22% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots on target | 21% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ shots on target | 21% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots on target | 20% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots | 20% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals | 19% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots | 19% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Marc Guéhi: 1+ shots | 18% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ shots | 17% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 1+ shots | 17% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots | 17% |
| Lucas Digne: 1+ shots | 17% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots on target | 17% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots | 17% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ shots | 16% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots | 16% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ shots | 16% |
| Ezri Konsa: 1+ shots | 15% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ shots | 15% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ assists | 15% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Ezri Konsa: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Marc Guéhi: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ assists | 14% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ assists | 14% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots on target | 13% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Théo Hernández: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Jules Koundé: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ shots | 12% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots on target | 12% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals | 11% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals | 11% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ goals | 11% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals | 11% |
| Lucas Digne: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ shots on target | 10% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ goals | 9% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 2+ shots | 9% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ shots | 9% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Jules Koundé: 3+ shots | 9% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Théo Hernández: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ shots | 7% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Declan Rice: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Ezri Konsa: 2+ shots | 6% |
| Lucas Digne: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Marc Guéhi: 2+ shots | 6% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 3+ shots | 6% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Elliot Anderson: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Désiré Doué: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Harry Kane: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Michael Olise: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals | 4% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Jude Bellingham: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Manu Koné: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Bradley Barcola: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 5+ shots | 4% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 4+ shots | 3% |
| Anthony Gordon: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Declan Rice: 4+ shots | 3% |
| Elliot Anderson: 4+ shots | 3% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ shots | 3% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals | 1% |
| William Saliba: 1+ shots | 1% |
| William Saliba: 2+ shots | 1% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, france vs. england - player props stands at 83% likelihood according to current market consensus. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between France and England, scheduled for July 18 at 5:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for France vs. England - Player Props. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2026%20A%2022%2028%200%200%201%2054%2026%22%20fill%3D%22%23fbbf24%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
and%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2018%20Q%2016%204%2026%2010%20Q%2020%202%2032%206%20Q%2044%202%2038%2010%20Q%2048%204%2054%2018%22%20stroke%3D%22%23fbbf24%22%20stroke-width%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22none%22%20stroke-linecap%3D%22round%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Trade France vs. England - Player Props on World Cup 2026 Favorites
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →