Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
89% | 11% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
89% | 11% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 89% |
| England O/U 0.5 | 72% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 71% |
| O/U 1.5 | 67% |
| Mexico O/U 0.5 | 65% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 64% |
| England 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Mexico 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| England 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score | 48% |
| Team to Advance | 47% |
| England 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| O/U 2.5 | 40% |
| Mexico 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 38% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| England O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| Mexico 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 29% |
| Will the Match Go to Extra Time? | 29% |
| Mexico O/U 1.5 | 28% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 26% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 22% |
| O/U 3.5 | 20% |
| Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? | 20% |
| England (-1.5) | 17% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 17% |
| Mexico (-1.5) | 13% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| England O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| England 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 11% |
| Mexico O/U 2.5 | 10% |
| O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 8% |
| Mexico 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 8% |
| England (-2.5) | 6% |
| Mexico (-2.5) | 4% |
| O/U 5.5 | 3% |
| England (-3.5) | 2% |
| Mexico (-4.5) | 2% |
| England (-4.5) | 2% |
| Mexico (-3.5) | 1% |
| O/U 6.5 | 1% |
| O/U 7.5 | 1% |
| O/U 8.5 | 1% |
| Mexico (-5.5) | 0% |
| England (-5.5) | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 89% probability to mexico vs. england - more markets. More markets for the FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for July 5 at 8:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Mexico vs. England - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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