Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Michael Thorbjornsen | 94% |
| Davis Riley | 5% |
| Ryan Gerard | 1% |
| Matt Wallace | 1% |
| Kristoffer Ventura | 1% |
| Peter Malnati | 0% |
| Rickie Fowler | 0% |
| Patrick Fishburn | 0% |
| Keegan Bradley | 0% |
| Doug Ghim | 0% |
| Stephan Jaeger | 0% |
| Michael Kim | 0% |
| Chris Kirk | 0% |
| Ricky Castillo | 0% |
| Emiliano Grillo | 0% |
| Mark Hubbard | 0% |
| Johnny Keefer | 0% |
| Xander Schauffele | 0% |
| Brandt Snedeker | 0% |
| Kevin Yu | 0% |
| Patrick Cantlay | 0% |
| Eric Cole | 0% |
| Rico Hoey | 0% |
| Sung-Jae Im | 0% |
| Benjamin James | 0% |
| Gordon Sargent | 0% |
| Adam Schenk | 0% |
| Neal Shipley | 0% |
| Davis Thompson | 0% |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | 0% |
| Akshay Bhatia | 0% |
| Tony Finau | 0% |
| Chris Gotterup | 0% |
| Ben Griffin | 0% |
| David Lipsky | 0% |
| Max McGreevy | 0% |
| Jordan L. Smith | 0% |
| J.J. Spaun | 0% |
| Sam Stevens | 0% |
| Aaron Wise | 0% |
| Matt Kuchar | 0% |
| Zach Bauchou | 0% |
| Corey Conners | 0% |
| Steven Fisk | 0% |
| Max Greyserman | 0% |
| Ryo Hisatsune | 0% |
| Billy Horschel | 0% |
| Si Woo Kim | 0% |
| Jackson Koivun | 0% |
| Henry Lebioda | 0% |
| Stefano Mazzoli | 0% |
| Matt McCarty | 0% |
| Keita Nakajima | 0% |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | 0% |
| Jordan Spieth | 0% |
| Jackson Suber | 0% |
| Adam Svensson | 0% |
| Nick Taylor | 0% |
| Karl Vilips | 0% |
| Vince Whaley | 0% |
| Cameron Young | 0% |
| Justin Lower | 0% |
| Zac Blair | 0% |
| Jimmy Stanger | 0% |
| Chandler Blanchet | 0% |
| Jacob Bridgeman | 0% |
| Brian Campbell | 0% |
| Rafael Campos | 0% |
| Luke Clanton | 0% |
| Pierceson Coody | 0% |
| Joel Dahmen | 0% |
| Brad Dalke | 0% |
| Cam Davis | 0% |
| Ze-Cheng Dou | 0% |
| Austin Eckroat | 0% |
| Harris English | 0% |
| A.J. Ewart | 0% |
| Brice Garnett | 0% |
| Russell Henley | 0% |
| Garrick Higgo | 0% |
| Joe Highsmith | 0% |
| Lee Hodges | 0% |
| Tom Hoge | 0% |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | 0% |
| Mackenzie Hughes | 0% |
| Patton Kizzire | 0% |
| Jake Knapp | 0% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 0% |
| Mac Meissner | 0% |
| Matthieu Pavon | 0% |
| Marco Penge | 0% |
| Andrew Putnam | 0% |
| Chad Ramey | 0% |
| Kevin Roy | 0% |
| Ryan Ruffels | 0% |
| Matthias Schmid | 0% |
| Webb Simpson | 0% |
| Kevin Streelman | 0% |
| Dylan Wu | 0% |
| Sudarshan Yellamaraju | 0% |
| Player 0 | 0% |
| Player 1 | 0% |
| Player 2 | 0% |
| Player 3 | 0% |
| Player 4 | 0% |
| Player 5 | 0% |
| Player 6 | 0% |
| Player 7 | 0% |
| Player 8 | 0% |
| Player 9 | 0% |
| Player 10 | 0% |
| Player 11 | 0% |
| Player 12 | 0% |
| Player 13 | 0% |
| Player 14 | 0% |
| Player 15 | 0% |
| Player 16 | 0% |
| Player 17 | 0% |
| Player 18 | 0% |
| Player 19 | 0% |
| Other | 0% |
Market context
The Rocket Classic at Detroit Golf Club is set up as a low-scoring, high-variance PGA Tour event, and the 2026 market has already reflected that by clustering prices tightly near the top rather than giving one player a dominant edge. Cameron Young opened as the betting favourite across several books, with Xander Schauffele, Chris Gotterup, Si Woo Kim and Wyndham Clark all priced in the same broad band behind him, which is consistent with a field where recent form can matter more than reputation alone.[1][3][9]
For traders, the main catalyst is simple: line-up certainty and late withdrawal news can move a market like this quickly, because an unlisted winner becomes “Other” and any listed player ruled out of contention resolves “No” under the market rules. The live odds pages were still being updated through the week of the event, with DraftKings, FanDuel and other books showing meaningful variation around Young, Koivun and Schauffele, so any final tee-time changes, injury withdrawals or unexpected non-starters would matter more than historical course narratives.[2][9][16] Recent previews also highlighted Jackson Koivun coming in off a win at the 3M Open, which is the sort of short-term form that can pull money towards a player even in a crowded outright book.[3][5]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for PGA Tour: Rocket Classic Winner. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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