Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Match O/U 36.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 3 Winner | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 4 Winner | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Match O/U 40.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Match O/U 38.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to wimbledon atp: daniel merida aguilar vs daniil medvedev. This market refers to the tennis match between Daniel Merida Aguilar and Daniil Medvedev in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for July 1, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Daniel …
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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