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Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar

How the prediction market is pricing "Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 2 O/U 8.5 100% Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 2 Winner 100% Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 1 Winner 100% Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 1 O/U 8.5 100% Volume: $838K Closes: 6 Jul 2026
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Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 2 O/U 8.5100%
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 2 Winner100%
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 1 Winner100%
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 1 O/U 8.5100%
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 1 O/U 9.5100%
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 4 O/U 8.550%
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Match O/U 40.550%
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 4 O/U 9.550%
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 4 O/U 10.550%
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Total Sets: O/U 3.550%
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Match O/U 36.550%
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Total Sets: O/U 4.550%
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Match O/U 38.550%
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set Handicap +/-1.550%
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set Handicap +/-2.550%
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 4 Winner50%
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 2 O/U 10.50%
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 3 O/U 8.50%
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 3 O/U 9.50%
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 3 O/U 10.50%
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 2 O/U 9.50%
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar0%
Completed Match0%
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 1 O/U 10.50%
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Set 3 Winner0%

Market context

The Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar prediction market currently prices this outcome at 100% YES. This market refers to the tennis match between Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Daniel Merida Aguilar in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'C…

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?
Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
Can I import form data and lineups?
This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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Related Topics

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