Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
90% | 10% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
90% | 10% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Winston-Salem Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Ignacio Buse Set 1 Winner | 90% |
| Winston-Salem Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Ignacio Buse Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 90% |
| Winston-Salem Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Ignacio Buse Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 90% |
| Winston-Salem Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Ignacio Buse | 72% |
| Winston-Salem Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Ignacio Buse Match O/U 22.5 | 57% |
| Winston-Salem Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Ignacio Buse Set 2 Winner | 55% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Winston-Salem Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Ignacio Buse Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Winston-Salem Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Ignacio Buse Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Winston-Salem Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Ignacio Buse Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Winston-Salem Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Ignacio Buse Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Winston-Salem Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Ignacio Buse Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Winston-Salem Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Ignacio Buse Game Spread +/-0.5 | 50% |
| Winston-Salem Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Ignacio Buse Match O/U 23.5 | 49% |
| Winston-Salem Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Ignacio Buse Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 48% |
| Winston-Salem Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Ignacio Buse Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 42% |
| Winston-Salem Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Ignacio Buse Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 8% |
Market context
Winston-Salem Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Ignacio Buse — current market-implied probability: 90%. This market refers to the tennis match between Juan Manuel Cerundolo and Ignacio Buse in the Winston-Salem Open, originally scheduled for August 27, 2026 at 4:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ju…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Winston-Salem Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Ignacio Buse. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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