Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 99% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 99% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 66% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 60% |
| Completed Match | 51% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Match O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Match O/U 38.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 2 Winner | 46% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 3 Winner | 44% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Match O/U 40.5 | 37% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 35% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 33% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard | 27% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 1 Winner | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, wimbledon atp: yannick hanfmann vs giovanni mpetshi perricard stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Yannick Hanfmann and Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This mark…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
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