Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Lukas Neumayer | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Lukas Neumayer Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Lukas Neumayer Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Lukas Neumayer Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Lukas Neumayer Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Lukas Neumayer Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Lukas Neumayer Game Spread +/-3.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Lukas Neumayer Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Lukas Neumayer Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Lukas Neumayer Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Lukas Neumayer Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Lukas Neumayer Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Lukas Neumayer Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Lukas Neumayer Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Lukas Neumayer Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, us open, qualification atp: coleman wong vs lukas neumayer stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Coleman Wong and Lukas Neumayer in the US Open, Qualification ATP, originally scheduled for August 26, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This mark…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for US Open, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Lukas Neumayer. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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