Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
79% | 21% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
79% | 21% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open ATP: Yibing Wu vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 79% |
| US Open ATP: Yibing Wu vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 55% |
| US Open ATP: Yibing Wu vs Carlos Alcaraz Game Spread +/-6.5 | 54% |
| US Open ATP: Yibing Wu vs Carlos Alcaraz Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 51% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Yibing Wu vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Yibing Wu vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Yibing Wu vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Yibing Wu vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Yibing Wu vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Yibing Wu vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Yibing Wu vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Yibing Wu vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Yibing Wu vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Yibing Wu vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Yibing Wu vs Carlos Alcaraz Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 47% |
| US Open ATP: Yibing Wu vs Carlos Alcaraz Match O/U 36.5 | 43% |
| US Open ATP: Yibing Wu vs Carlos Alcaraz Match O/U 38.5 | 40% |
| US Open ATP: Yibing Wu vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 40% |
| US Open ATP: Yibing Wu vs Carlos Alcaraz Match O/U 40.5 | 27% |
| US Open ATP: Yibing Wu vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 3 Winner | 24% |
| US Open ATP: Yibing Wu vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 24% |
| US Open ATP: Yibing Wu vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 2 Winner | 23% |
| US Open ATP: Yibing Wu vs Carlos Alcaraz Set 1 Winner | 21% |
| US Open ATP: Yibing Wu vs Carlos Alcaraz Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 17% |
| US Open ATP: Yibing Wu vs Carlos Alcaraz | 8% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 79% probability to us open atp: yibing wu vs carlos alcaraz. This market refers to the tennis match between Yibing Wu and Carlos Alcaraz in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 4, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Yibing Wu' if Yi…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for US Open ATP: Yibing Wu vs Carlos Alcaraz. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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