Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| SE Palmeiras (-1.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Coritiba FBC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| SE Palmeiras O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| SE Palmeiras O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| SE Palmeiras O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| SE Palmeiras 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| SE Palmeiras 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Coritiba FBC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| SE Palmeiras 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 1% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| Coritiba FBC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| SE Palmeiras 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Coritiba FBC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Coritiba FBC (-2.5) | 0% |
| SE Palmeiras (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Coritiba FBC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Coritiba FBC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Coritiba FBC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Coritiba FBC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Coritiba FBC’s Serie A meeting with Palmeiras is the sort of fixture where the market usually leans hard on table position and recent defensive numbers. Palmeiras arrive as league leaders on 12-5-1, while Coritiba sit seventh, and the head-to-head record is fairly balanced over the last 14 meetings, with Coritiba winning six and Palmeiras seven.[1][3][5] That wider history matters because it shows Coritiba have often been competitive in this pairing, even when Palmeiras have been the stronger side on paper.[3][5]
The current **0% YES** price looks extreme unless the underlying market is specifically tied to a very narrow “more markets” angle rather than match outcome. Recent previews point to Palmeiras as clear favourites, but also note Coritiba’s improved attacking output and Palmeiras’ strong defensive record, which would normally keep secondary goal and combo markets live rather than dead on arrival.[7] Comparable market data around this fixture has still carried moderate scoring expectations, with one live listing setting a 2.5 combined goals line and another projecting no more than four total goals.[4][9]
For traders, the main catalysts are the confirmed line-ups and any late team-news around Palmeiras’ away XI, because changes in their defensive spine or attacking selection would move the total-goals and team-specific markets fastest.[7] Coritiba’s recent tendency to concede first and Palmeiras’ stronger away profile are also relevant if the opening tempo is slow, since that can compress the range of viable “more markets” outcomes.[7] The market is already settled around a match window ending at 22:30 UTC, so any late official squad announcements before kick-off are the key dependency to watch.[1]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Coritiba FBC vs. SE Palmeiras - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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