Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
99% | 1% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
99% | 1% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Spread -0.5 | 99% |
| Spread -8.5 | 99% |
| Spread -13.5 | 95% |
| Spread -4.5 | 76% |
| O/U 36.5 | 67% |
| O/U 42.5 | 66% |
| O/U 48.5 | 66% |
| O/U 54.5 | 54% |
| Spread -10.5 | 53% |
| Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| Spread -5.5 | 52% |
| Spread -6.5 | 52% |
| Spread -7.5 | 52% |
| Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -27.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -30.5 | 51% |
| Ohio State O/U 52.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -12.5 | 51% |
| Ohio State 2H O/U 23.5 | 51% |
| Ohio State O/U 47.5 | 51% |
| Ohio State O/U 53.5 | 51% |
| Spread -49.5 | 51% |
| Spread: Ohio State (-50.5) | 50% |
| O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| Spread -24.5 | 50% |
| Spread -27.5 | 50% |
| Spread -31.5 | 50% |
| Spread -34.5 | 50% |
| O/U 38.5 | 50% |
| O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| O/U 44.5 | 50% |
| O/U 46.5 | 50% |
| O/U 50.5 | 50% |
| O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| O/U 64.5 | 50% |
| O/U 68.5 | 50% |
| O/U 70.5 | 50% |
| O/U 72.5 | 50% |
| O/U 74.5 | 50% |
| O/U 76.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H Spread -26.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -28.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -29.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -15.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State O/U 46.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Ball State O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Ball State O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Ball State O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -25.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -19.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -22.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -23.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -15.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -18.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Ball State O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ball State O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Ball State O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Ball State O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Ball State O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Ball State 1H O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Ball State 1H O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 1H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 1H O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 1H O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| Ball State 2H O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Ball State 2H O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State O/U 50.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 1H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 1H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 1H O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| O/U 55.5 | 48% |
| O/U 58.5 | 44% |
| O/U 66.5 | 39% |
| Ball State vs. Ohio State | 0% |
Market context
The Ball State vs. Ohio State prediction market currently prices this outcome at 99% YES. In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 5 at 12:30PM ET: If Ball State wins, the market will resolve to "Ball State". If Ohio State wins, the market will resolve to "Ohio State"…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $49K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Ball State vs. Ohio State. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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