Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| New Mexico State O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| New Mexico State 1H O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| New Mexico State 1H O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| New Mexico State 1H O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| New Mexico State O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| New Mexico State O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| O/U 35.5 | 94% |
| New Mexico State O/U 7.5 | 90% |
| New Mexico State O/U 9.5 | 90% |
| O/U 41.5 | 79% |
| Spread -10.5 | 74% |
| Spread -14.5 | 60% |
| Spread -16.5 | 59% |
| Spread -6.5 | 55% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 54% |
| Spread -24.5 | 52% |
| O/U 47.5 | 52% |
| Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| Spread -17.5 | 51% |
| Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -34.5 | 50% |
| O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| O/U 37.5 | 50% |
| O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| O/U 43.5 | 50% |
| O/U 45.5 | 50% |
| O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| O/U 67.5 | 50% |
| O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| O/U 73.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Florida State O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Florida State O/U 38.5 | 50% |
| Florida State O/U 41.5 | 50% |
| Florida State O/U 44.5 | 50% |
| Florida State O/U 47.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Florida State 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Florida State 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Florida State 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 2H O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 2H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -15.5 | 50% |
| Spread -32.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Florida State O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| Florida State O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Florida State O/U 42.5 | 50% |
| Florida State O/U 45.5 | 50% |
| Florida State O/U 48.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 2H O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 2H O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 2H O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Florida State 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Florida State O/U 37.5 | 50% |
| Florida State O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| Florida State O/U 43.5 | 50% |
| Florida State O/U 46.5 | 50% |
| Florida State O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| Florida State 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Florida State 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Florida State 2H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Spread -13.5 | 46% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 45% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 43% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 40% |
| Spread -20.5 | 39% |
| Spread -21.5 | 39% |
| O/U 51.5 | 36% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 34% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 33% |
| O/U 52.5 | 29% |
| O/U 53.5 | 23% |
| O/U 55.5 | 23% |
| Spread -27.5 | 22% |
| O/U 71.5 | 13% |
| Spread -30.5 | 8% |
| O/U 59.5 | 8% |
| Spread: Florida State (-31.5) | 5% |
| New Mexico State vs. Florida State | 3% |
| O/U 65.5 | 3% |
| 1H Moneyline | 0% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -18.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -19.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -11.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 0% |
| Florida State 1H O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Florida State 1H O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| Florida State 1H O/U 25.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -12.5 | 0% |
| New Mexico State 1H O/U 7.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of new mexico state vs. florida state. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for August 29 at 7:00PM ET: If New Mexico State wins, the market will resolve to "New Mexico State". If Florida State wins, the mar…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $139K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for New Mexico State vs. Florida State. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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