Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| O/U 34.5 | 94% |
| 1H O/U 18.5 | 91% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 91% |
| 2Q O/U 8.5 | 91% |
| 2Q O/U 11.5 | 91% |
| Spread -1.5 | 86% |
| Spread -2.5 | 84% |
| O/U 40.5 | 80% |
| Spread -3.5 | 77% |
| Spread -4.5 | 76% |
| Spread -5.5 | 74% |
| Spread -6.5 | 71% |
| Spread -7.5 | 65% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 62% |
| O/U 46.5 | 61% |
| Spread -9.5 | 60% |
| Spread -18.5 | 56% |
| Spread -10.5 | 55% |
| Spread -11.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 51% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -31.5 | 50% |
| Spread -34.5 | 50% |
| O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| O/U 38.5 | 50% |
| O/U 42.5 | 50% |
| O/U 44.5 | 50% |
| O/U 48.5 | 50% |
| O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| O/U 66.5 | 50% |
| O/U 68.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Hawai'i O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| New Mexico State O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 1H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 1H O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 1H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 2H O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| New Mexico State 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| Spread -15.5 | 50% |
| Spread -22.5 | 50% |
| Spread -25.5 | 50% |
| Spread -28.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| DeVon Rice: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| James Jones: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Tama Uiliata: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Devin Alves: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Audric Harris: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Trey Hedden: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Tyler King: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Blaze Kamoku: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Micah Alejado: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Terrell Washington Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Carson Brown: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Dijon Stanley: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Kainoa Carvalho: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Josiah Fetui: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| TJ Pride: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Lyndon Ravare: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Josiah Thomas: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Terrione Graves: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| O/U 50.5 | 48% |
| O/U 49.5 | 48% |
| O/U 51.5 | 47% |
| Spread -13.5 | 47% |
| O/U 52.5 | 43% |
| Spread -14.5 | 41% |
| Spread -16.5 | 37% |
| O/U 54.5 | 36% |
| Spread -17.5 | 31% |
| Spread -20.5 | 26% |
| O/U 58.5 | 24% |
| Spread -21.5 | 18% |
| New Mexico State vs. Hawai'i | 14% |
| Spread -24.5 | 13% |
| O/U 64.5 | 12% |
| Spread -2.5 | 12% |
| Spread -27.5 | 9% |
| O/U 70.5 | 6% |
| Spread -5.5 | 6% |
| Spread -9.5 | 4% |
| Spread -6.5 | 4% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, new mexico state vs. hawai'i stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. In the upcoming college football game between New Mexico State and Hawai'i, scheduled for September 13 at 12:00AM ET: This market will resolve to "New Mexico State" if New Mexico S…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $282K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for New Mexico State vs. Hawai'i. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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