Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
98% | 2% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
98% | 2% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 33.5 | 98% |
| O/U 39.5 | 96% |
| O/U 45.5 | 92% |
| UCLA vs. California | 84% |
| Spread -2.5 | 83% |
| O/U 51.5 | 81% |
| Spread: UCLA (-1.5) | 78% |
| Spread -3.5 | 75% |
| Spread -4.5 | 75% |
| O/U 53.5 | 74% |
| Spread -5.5 | 74% |
| Spread -6.5 | 71% |
| Spread -7.5 | 68% |
| O/U 55.5 | 65% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 65% |
| O/U 57.5 | 61% |
| Spread -10.5 | 56% |
| Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| California 1H O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| Spread -24.5 | 50% |
| Spread -27.5 | 50% |
| Spread -31.5 | 50% |
| Spread -34.5 | 50% |
| O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| O/U 37.5 | 50% |
| O/U 41.5 | 50% |
| O/U 43.5 | 50% |
| O/U 47.5 | 50% |
| O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| O/U 65.5 | 50% |
| O/U 67.5 | 50% |
| O/U 71.5 | 50% |
| O/U 73.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| UCLA O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| UCLA O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| UCLA O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| UCLA O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| UCLA O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| UCLA 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| UCLA 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| UCLA 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| California 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| California 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| UCLA 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| UCLA 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| UCLA 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| California 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| California 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| California 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| California 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| California 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| California 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| UCLA O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Adam Mohammed: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Nico Iamaleava: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Wayne Knight: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Ian Strong: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Chase Hendricks: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jaivian Thomas: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Ashten Emory: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Anthony Woods: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Brian Rowe Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Landon Ellis: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Carter Vargas: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Mikey Matthews: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Leland Smith: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Mason Mini: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Dorian Thomas: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Cooper Perry: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Brayden Loftin: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Josh Phifer: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Semaj Morgan: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jordan King: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| UCLA O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| UCLA O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| UCLA O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| UCLA O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| California O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Spread -14.5 | 45% |
| Spread -16.5 | 42% |
| O/U 63.5 | 41% |
| O/U 69.5 | 26% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 98% chance of ucla vs. california. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 5 at 10:30PM ET: If UCLA wins, the market will resolve to "UCLA". If California wins, the market will resolve to "Cal…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $186K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for UCLA vs. California. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2026%20A%2022%2028%200%200%201%2054%2026%22%20fill%3D%22%23fbbf24%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
and%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2018%20Q%2016%204%2026%2010%20Q%2020%202%2032%206%20Q%2044%202%2038%2010%20Q%2048%204%2054%2018%22%20stroke%3D%22%23fbbf24%22%20stroke-width%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22none%22%20stroke-linecap%3D%22round%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Trade UCLA vs. California on World Cup 2026 Favorites
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →