Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Henan FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Henan FC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Henan FC O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Henan FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Henan FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Henan FC (-1.5) | 99% |
| Henan FC (-2.5) | 89% |
| O/U 3.5 | 83% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 78% |
| Henan FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 77% |
| O/U 4.5 | 52% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 51% |
| Qingdao Hainiu FC O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Qingdao Hainiu FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Henan FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Qingdao Hainiu FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Both Teams to Score | 33% |
| Qingdao Hainiu FC O/U 0.5 | 33% |
| O/U 5.5 | 24% |
| Qingdao Hainiu FC O/U 1.5 | 6% |
| Qingdao Hainiu FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| Qingdao Hainiu FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Qingdao Hainiu FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Qingdao Hainiu FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Henan FC and Qingdao Hainiu FC meet in a Chinese Super League fixture on 17 July 2026, with the market betting on the existence of additional betting options for this match. The 99% YES probability reflects the standard operational practice of Chinese Super League games, where bookmakers routinely open supplementary markets such as total goals, half-time scores, and player-specific bets shortly after the main match odds are set. Historically, CSL fixtures between mid-table teams like Henan (6-3-8) and Qingdao (6-3-9) consistently trigger expanded market coverage, as seen in their 1-1 draw on 29 August 2025, which featured multiple secondary markets [1][2].
Traders should monitor the official league announcement for the final squad lists, as any late suspensions or injuries could delay the opening of player-specific markets. Henan’s recent form shows three wins in their last eight matches, while Qingdao has struggled with only three wins in nine, creating volatility in goal-total derivatives that often accompany expanded markets [2]. The settlement window closes at 11:35 UTC on 17 July, aligning with the match’s 7:35 AM ET start, meaning any delay in the game’s commencement could postpone the activation of these additional markets. No recent news source has indicated cancellations, but the Polymarket data confirms the market’s active status as of today [3].
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Henan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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