Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Shanghai Haigang FC | 100% |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong FC | 0% |
| Draw | 0% |
Market context
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC meet Shanghai Haigang FC in the Chinese Super League at Chongqing Longxing Football Stadium, with the market currently pricing a 0% YES outcome. The main historical frame is thin because these clubs have only a limited league sample against each other, so traders are leaning more on current standing and recent performance than on any deep head-to-head trend.[2][4]
Recent form points to a tighter contest than the current price implies, even if not necessarily a home win. Chongqing have been involved in mixed results across their latest league matches, including a recent 2-0 away defeat to Shenzhen Xinpengcheng, while Shanghai’s recent preview data shows a side that has been more efficient defensively over the season, with more clean sheets and fewer goals conceded than Chongqing.[1][4] That combination matters because the market is likely to move most if Chongqing are again missing key attacking personnel or if Shanghai name a stronger-than-expected XI, since there is little head-to-head history to anchor the number.[1][2]
The key catalysts are team news and any late scheduling or selection signals before kick-off, especially confirmed line-ups, injuries and suspensions, plus whether Shanghai rotate after a congested run. With settlement due at 11:35 UTC, the final pre-match XI announcements are the most important dependency for traders, because they will tell you whether the 0% YES price is simply a reflection of severe mismatch sentiment or whether it is vulnerable to a sharp repricing on team-sheet news.[2][4]
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $410K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
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