Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
98% | 2% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
98% | 2% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Dalian Yingbo FC | 98% |
| Draw | 3% |
| Liaoning Tieren FC | 0% |
Market context
Dalian Yingbo FC host Liaoning Tieren FC in the Chinese Super League at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium, with the market already pricing a **98% YES** outcome.[2][5] The strongest historical frame is the head-to-head and league-position gap: Dalian won the clubs’ most recent meeting 1-0 away in April, and the live match pages currently place Dalian higher in the table than Liaoning, which is consistent with the heavy yes price.[2][3][9][11]
That probability is unusually high, but the match profile does not fully support a one-way view. The teams have only met a handful of times in the available record, with Dalian holding the edge overall, yet the recent form snapshots suggest both sides have been capable of scoring and conceding, which leaves some scope for a tighter game than the market implies.[3][8][17] Dalian’s recent league results include a 1-1 draw at Henan and a 3-1 home win over Shandong, while Liaoning’s recent form pages show mixed results but also a 3-1 win over Shanghai Shenhua, so the line is being driven more by the cumulative strength of the fixture than by a clean recent run.[5][14]
The main catalysts to watch are team news and any late selection changes, because the public match pages do not yet show confirmed line-ups, injuries or suspensions.[2][8] If either side rests key attackers after a congested schedule, or if the pre-match XI differs from the projected teams on live score services, that is the most likely source of movement before kick-off. One recent source also notes Dalian’s last league match finished 1-1 away at Henan on 31 July, which keeps attention on recovery time and rotation rather than on long-term form alone.[5]
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $224K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Liaoning Tieren FC. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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