Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Arsenal FC (-1.5) | 100% |
| Arsenal FC (-2.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Girona FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Arsenal FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Arsenal FC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Arsenal FC O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Arsenal FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Arsenal FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Girona FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Arsenal FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Arsenal FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Girona FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Girona FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Girona FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Girona FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Girona FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Girona FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Girona FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Girona FC’s pre-season friendly against Arsenal FC is the real-world event behind the market, and the 0% YES price is best read as a thin-line market rather than a settled view on the football itself. Public previews overwhelmingly lean towards an Arsenal win, with multiple outlets calling the visitors favourites and several projecting a 2-0, 1-2, 1-3 or even 1-4 scoreline, while Arsenal are also listed at around 1.91 to win in one bookmaker snapshot.[1][2][9][10][11][17]
For historical framing, the main reference point is the clubs’ only previous competitive meeting, a Champions League fixture in January 2025 that ended in an Arsenal win, with preview coverage again expecting the Gunners to control the tie.[4][5][6] That matters because comparable models and previews still treat Arsenal as the stronger side, but the market here is not about the result line: “more markets” in a summer friendly usually turns on whether extra offerings are posted and accepted before kick-off, so a 0% YES can persist even when the football case for Arsenal remains intact.[7][15]
The key catalysts are line-up announcements and late squad management. Girona’s projected XI has already been published by one preview, while Arsenal’s team news is still being framed around pre-season rotation, meaning any senior absences, academy-heavy selections or late travel decisions could change what auxiliary markets are offered.[2][17] Kick-off is listed for 2:00 PM ET, with some previews noting that Arsenal are beginning title preparations rather than treating this like a full-strength competitive fixture, which makes official team sheets, bench composition and any last-minute injury or workload news the main dependencies for traders watching the settlement window.[2][13][15]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Girona FC vs. Arsenal FC - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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