Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| FC Vaduz (-1.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Vaduz O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Vaduz O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC Vaduz 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Vaduz 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Atlétic Club d'Escaldes (-1.5) | 0% |
| Atlétic Club d'Escaldes (-2.5) | 0% |
| FC Vaduz (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Atlétic Club d'Escaldes O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Atlétic Club d'Escaldes O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Atlétic Club d'Escaldes O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Vaduz O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Atlétic Club d'Escaldes 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Atlétic Club d'Escaldes 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Vaduz 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Atlétic Club d'Escaldes 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Atlétic Club d'Escaldes 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Vaduz 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Team to Advance | 0% |
Market context
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes host FC Vaduz in the UEFA Europa Conference League second qualifying round with Vaduz already 4-0 up from the first leg, so the market is really about whether the away side manage the tie rather than chase it. That first meeting was settled early enough for Vaduz to control the game, with Mischa Eberhard scoring twice and further goals from Jesús Cabrera and Dejan Sorgić, which underlines the gap the market is pricing into the legs-based probabilities.[5][13][14]
The 0% YES price is best read against the qualifier format: Atlètic need an extreme turnaround to create any meaningful upside in any derivative market, while Vaduz can play conservatively and still be comfortable on aggregate. Comparable recent Conference League qualifiers suggest both teams have experienced mixed short-form results in Europe, but Vaduz’s recent knockout record includes several wins against lower-tier opposition, and Atlètic have at least shown they can score in this competition, including against Mornar in the first qualifying round last season.[7][3] The head-to-head sample is thin, so the 4-0 first-leg margin carries most of the signal.[2][5]
For traders, the main catalysts are the confirmed line-ups, any late rotation from Vaduz, and whether Atlètic change shape to attack from the start. The fixture is listed for Estadi Nacional in Andorra la Vella at 14:00 UTC, and live feeds have the match as not started, so any final team news or suspension/injury surprises would matter more than historical H2H data at this stage.[11][3] So far, the available pre-match feeds do not publish a clear injury bulletin or suspension list, which means the largest line move would likely come from the starting XIs rather than off-field news.[3][6]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Atlétic Club d'Escaldes vs. FC Vaduz - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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