Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Draw | 100% |
| Noah FA | 0% |
| FC Sion | 0% |
Market context
Noah FA host FC Sion in the first leg of their UEFA Conference League qualifying tie, with the game listed for Abovyan City Stadium and a 16:00 UTC kick-off.[4][9][16] The market’s 0% implied probability on the YES side is markedly at odds with public preview pricing, which generally treats the fixture as competitive rather than one-sided: pre-match models and tipsters have leaned anywhere from Noah narrowly, to Sion narrowly, to a high-scoring draw-type game.[1][8][10][15]
The historical frame is thin, so traders should read the price more through comparable first-leg dynamics than through a deep head-to-head record. Available previews suggest both sides have been producing goals recently, with Noah scoring eight in their last five matches and Sion seeing over 2.5 goals in two-thirds of their last 15 games; that is the sort of profile that can keep an upset or BTTS outcome live even when one side is slightly favoured.[3][10][13] That said, the official UEFA match page and live-score listings confirm the fixture but do not yet provide a completed lineup or result context, so the market is still being set by pre-match assumptions rather than team-sheet evidence.[4][5][9][12]
The main catalysts to watch are the confirmed line-ups, any late injury or suspension news, and whether either club rotates ahead of domestic fixtures, because those factors are the clearest route to a late reprice in a qualifying first leg. If Noah’s home record cited by some preview sites holds up, or if Sion travel with a stronger XI than expected, the balance can move quickly; conversely, any absence in central defence or at centre-forward would matter more than generic form lines in a tie this close.[7][10][13]
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $126K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Noah FA vs. FC Sion. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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