Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| AC Virtus O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| AC Virtus 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| AC Virtus (-1.5) | 0% |
| SK Dila Gori (-1.5) | 0% |
| AC Virtus (-2.5) | 0% |
| SK Dila Gori (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| AC Virtus O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| AC Virtus O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| SK Dila Gori O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| SK Dila Gori O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| SK Dila Gori O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| AC Virtus 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| AC Virtus 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| SK Dila Gori 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| SK Dila Gori 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| AC Virtus 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| SK Dila Gori 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| SK Dila Gori 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
AC Virtus face SK Dila Gori in a UEFA Europa Conference League qualifier at San Marino Stadium tonight, with the match kicking off at 21:00 local time. The 0% crowd-implied probability for the secondary market reflects Dila Gori’s overwhelming dominance in the sole prior encounter, where they secured a 3–1 victory and have not lost to Virtus in their head-to-head history [2]. This lopsided record mirrors patterns seen in early-stage European qualifiers where a single established side faces a minnow with negligible continental experience, often suppressing volatility in ancillary markets like total goals or specific player props until line-up confirmations arrive.
Traders must monitor the final squad announcements for both sides, particularly any late injuries to Dila Gori’s attacking unit or suspensions affecting Virtus’s defensive shape, as these factors directly influence goal-scoring catalysts. Sky Sports notes the fixture is set for 20:00 GMT, with venue details confirming the San Marino location, meaning weather conditions and pitch quality could further constrain scoring if the home side lacks depth [1][4]. No major suspension news has emerged yet, but the absence of Virtus wins in their only meeting suggests the market is pricing in a high-probability Dila Gori control, making any deviation from expected line-ups the primary trigger for probability shifts.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for AC Virtus vs. SK Dila Gori - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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