Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Global Super League: Guyana Amazon Warriors vs San Francisco Unicorns | 100% |
| Global Super League: Guyana Amazon Warriors vs San Francisco Unicorns - Completed match? | 53% |
| Global Super League: Guyana Amazon Warriors vs San Francisco Unicorns - Who wins the toss? | 1% |
Market context
Guyana Amazon Warriors vs San Francisco Unicorns is the Global Super League match at Providence Stadium, and the live score feeds show it has been played with San Francisco posting 156/6 and Guyana already into their chase, which makes a 100% YES price look consistent with the market already being effectively decided on the field.[11][12] ESPN’s match page lists the fixture as the second match of the 2026 Global Super League, while CricTracker notes this is the first T20 meeting between the sides, so there is no head-to-head record to anchor a longer rivalry read-through.[7][6]
The useful historical frame is squad continuity rather than prior meetings. Guyana are the defending GSL champions and came in with a settled core, but they have had a clear personnel change: Glenn Phillips was ruled out injured and replaced by Rahmanullah Gurbaz, while Amir Jangoo withdrew because of international commitments and was replaced by Jonathan van Lange.[10] For San Francisco, preview coverage pointed to a first GSL appearance but with a roster built around established franchise players, and the probable XI included Tim Robinson, Connor Esterhuizen, Hassan Khan and Fabian Allen, suggesting enough batting depth to stay competitive if conditions are true and the ball holds up under lights.[2][6]
The main catalysts now are score verification and any late match-state changes rather than team news. Traders should watch the official scorecard on ESPNcricinfo, because this market resolves strictly on the final published result there, and ordinary cricket outcomes such as DLS, DRS, penalties or a tiebreak count as normal wins under the market rules.[7] If the innings closes or a revised target is issued, the price should follow that confirmed result rather than earlier live totals; with the settlement window running well after the scheduled date, only the final published outcome matters.[7]
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $71K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Global Super League: Guyana Amazon Warriors vs San Francisco Unicorns. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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