The Hundred: Manchester Super Giants vs Birmingham Phoenix

Platform comparison

Market context

Manchester Super Giants against Birmingham Phoenix at Emirates Old Trafford is already off the books as a contest result-wise: Manchester won by 87 runs, with Jos Buttler’s 90 from 50 balls setting up a total of 187/5 and Birmingham bowled out for 100. That makes the current **100% YES** probability unsurprising, because the market is tied to the final ESPNcricinfo result and ordinary on-field win conditions, including DLS/DRS outcomes or a tiebreak, are treated the same way here.[2][4][5]

The historical frame also points the same way. Before this fixture, Manchester led the Hundred head-to-head 3-2, although Birmingham had won two of the previous three meetings, including a chase of 109/7 in 2025 that showed they can pressure Manchester if conditions are right.[4] On recent form entering the match, both sides had started the 2026 season well: Manchester had opened with a seven-run win over London Spirit, while Birmingham had beaten Trent Rockets by 10 runs, so pre-match pricing would have depended more on lineup strength and batting depth than on a clear table gap.[9][11]

For traders, the main catalysts were team news and whether either side carried over its best XI from those opening wins, particularly given Manchester’s reliance on Buttler and Birmingham’s recent power in the middle order.[2][9] Venue and innings context mattered too, because Old Trafford has produced a mid-140s first-innings average in Hundred men's games, making the toss and early wicket-taking relevant to any pre-match line, but they no longer matter for settlement now that the published result is decisive.[9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for The Hundred: Manchester Super Giants vs Birmingham Phoenix. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.