Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map Handicap: PRE (-1.5) vs MASQ (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Prestige (-3.5) vs MASQ (+3.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Prestige (-6.5) vs MASQ (+6.5) | 88% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Prestige (-3.5) vs MASQ (+3.5) | 85% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Prestige (-9.5) vs MASQ (+9.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 13% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 13% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Prestige (-6.5) vs MASQ (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MASQ (-3.5) vs Prestige (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map Handicap: MASQ (-1.5) vs Prestige (+1.5) | 1% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, counter-strike: prestige vs masq (bo3) - united21 playoffs stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Lower bracket quarterfinal 1 match between Prestige and MASQ in the United21 Playoffs, initially scheduled for June 29 at 4:00AM ET. This …
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Counter-Strike: Prestige vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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