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Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GamerLegion (BO3) - The International Group Stage

How the prediction market is pricing "Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GamerLegion (BO3) - The International Group Stage" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

Match Winner 89% Game 2 Winner 83% Game 1 Winner 80% Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5) 64% Volume: $80K Liquidity: $477K Closes: 15 Aug 2026
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Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GamerLegion (BO3) - The International Group Stage

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
89% 11% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
89% 11% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Match Winner89%
Game 2 Winner83%
Game 1 Winner80%
Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5)64%
First Blood in Game 1?57%
Any Player Rampage52%
Ends in Daytime51%
Ends in Daytime51%
Ends in Daytime51%
Any Player Ultra Kill51%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks50%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1?49%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2?48%
Both Teams Beat Roshan40%
First Blood in Game 2?36%
O/U 2.5 Games30%
Both Teams Beat Roshan28%
Both Teams Beat Roshan28%
Any Player Ultra Kill25%
Any Player Ultra Kill24%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks23%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks23%
Any Player Rampage14%
Any Player Rampage14%

Market context

Market consensus: 89% chance of dota 2: team falcons vs gamerlegion (bo3) - the international group stage. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 4 match between Team Falcons and GamerLegion in the The International Group Stage, initially scheduled for August 14, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET. T…

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GamerLegion (BO3) - The International Group Stage. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
When do sports markets resolve?
Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
Can I bet on individual matches?
Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
Can I import form data and lineups?
This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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