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Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International Group Stage

How the prediction market is pricing "Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International Group Stage" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? 100% Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? 100% Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 1? 100% Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? 100% Volume: $1.4M Liquidity: $682K Closes: 14 Aug 2026
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Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International Group Stage

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1?100%
Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1?100%
Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 1?100%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1?100%
Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 1?100%
Game 2 Winner98%
Ends in Daytime90%
Any Player Ultra Kill90%
Any Player Rampage90%
First Blood in Game 1?90%
O/U 2.5 Games61%
Both Teams Beat Roshan55%
Ends in Daytime50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks50%
Any Player Ultra Kill50%
Any Player Rampage50%
Ends in Daytime50%
Both Teams Beat Roshan50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks50%
Any Player Ultra Kill50%
Any Player Rampage50%
First Blood in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2?50%
Match Winner46%
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5)39%
Both Teams Beat Roshan10%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks10%
Game 1 Winner0%
Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs Team Spirit (+1.5)0%
Total Kills Over/Under 75.5 in Game 1?0%
Total Kills Over/Under 80.5 in Game 1?0%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, dota 2: team liquid vs team spirit (bo3) - the international group stage stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 3 match between Team Liquid and Team Spirit in the The International Group Stage, initially scheduled for August 14, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET. Thi…

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International Group Stage. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
Can I bet on individual matches?
Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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