Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
91% | 9% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
91% | 9% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 91% |
| Switzerland O/U 0.5 | 79% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 75% |
| O/U 1.5 | 71% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 66% |
| Team to Advance | 66% |
| Algeria O/U 0.5 | 64% |
| Switzerland 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 56% |
| Both Teams to Score | 54% |
| Switzerland 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 48% |
| O/U 2.5 | 44% |
| Switzerland O/U 1.5 | 44% |
| Algeria 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| Algeria 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 34% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 30% |
| Will the Match Go to Extra Time? | 30% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 26% |
| Algeria O/U 1.5 | 25% |
| Switzerland (-1.5) | 23% |
| O/U 3.5 | 23% |
| Switzerland 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 21% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 19% |
| Switzerland O/U 2.5 | 18% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 17% |
| Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? | 17% |
| Switzerland 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 14% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 11% |
| Algeria 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 11% |
| O/U 4.5 | 10% |
| Switzerland (-2.5) | 9% |
| Algeria (-1.5) | 8% |
| Algeria O/U 2.5 | 8% |
| Algeria 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 6% |
| Algeria (-4.5) | 5% |
| O/U 5.5 | 4% |
| Switzerland (-3.5) | 3% |
| Algeria (-2.5) | 2% |
| O/U 6.5 | 2% |
| Algeria (-3.5) | 1% |
| Switzerland (-4.5) | 1% |
| Switzerland (-5.5) | 1% |
| O/U 7.5 | 1% |
| Algeria (-5.5) | 0% |
| O/U 8.5 | 0% |
Market context
The underlying event is the FIFA World Cup Round of 32 match between Switzerland and Algeria, scheduled for 11:00 PM ET on 2 July 2026 at BC Place, with the prediction market betting on whether more goals will be scored than the current line implies. The crowd-implied probability of 23% YES suggests traders expect a low-scoring affair, yet historical data frames this cautiously: Algeria are winless in their last nine World Cup games against European opposition (D4, L5)[5], while Switzerland finished top of Group B unbeaten[7]. Comparable knockout matches involving African teams against European sides in recent World Cups often produced under 2.5 goals, aligning with the current 23% probability, though Algeria’s consistent scoring in all three 2026 World Cup games[6] introduces a slight upward bias.
Traders must watch for pre-match line-up announcements, particularly regarding Switzerland’s midfield stability and Algeria’s attacking depth, as any injury or suspension could shift the goal expectation. Recent form trackers show Algeria’s route has been volatile, with recent results indicating end-to-end battles if allowed[8], while Switzerland’s tactical discipline often limits high-scoring outcomes. A key catalyst is the official squad list release, expected within hours of kick-off, which may reveal whether Algeria’s key forwards are available; Yahoo Sports notes Algeria have scored in all three 2026 World Cup games[6], suggesting their attack remains potent despite defensive vulnerabilities. The settlement window ends 03:00 UTC on 3 July 2026, so all goal-related news before that time directly impacts the market.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Switzerland vs. Algeria - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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