Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ shots | 100% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals + assists | 91% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ goals + assists | 90% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Edin Džeko: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Edin Džeko: 1+ shots | 48% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 3+ shots | 34% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ shots | 10% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Gio Reyna: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Gio Reyna: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Gio Reyna: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ shots | 10% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Haji Wright: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Haji Wright: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ shots on target | 10% |
| Gio Reyna: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ shots on target | 10% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ shots on target | 10% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Haji Wright: 4+ shots on target | 10% |
| Chris Brady: 2+ saves | 10% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ shots on target | 10% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ shots on target | 10% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ shots on target | 10% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Christian Pulisic: 4+ shots on target | 10% |
| Tim Weah: 1+ shots on target | 10% |
| Tim Weah: 2+ shots on target | 10% |
| Tim Weah: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Tim Weah: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Tim Weah: 1+ shots | 10% |
| Tim Weah: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Tim Weah: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Tim Weah: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 2+ shots on target | 10% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Chris Brady: 3+ saves | 10% |
| Chris Brady: 4+ saves | 10% |
| Chris Brady: 5+ saves | 10% |
| Martin Zlomislić: 2+ saves | 10% |
| Martin Zlomislić: 3+ saves | 10% |
| Martin Zlomislić: 4+ saves | 10% |
| Martin Zlomislić: 5+ saves | 10% |
| Christian Pulisic: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Christian Pulisic: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Weston McKennie: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Gio Reyna: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 1+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 2+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Tim Weah: 1+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Tim Weah: 2+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Tim Weah: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Malik Tillman: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Malik Tillman: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Tim Weah: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Tim Weah: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 1+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 2+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Edin Džeko: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Edin Džeko: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Edin Džeko: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Edin Džeko: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Edin Džeko: 2+ shots on target | 10% |
| Edin Džeko: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Edin Džeko: 1+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Edin Džeko: 2+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Edin Džeko: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Edin Džeko: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Weston McKennie: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Gio Reyna: 4+ shots on target | 10% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ shots on target | 10% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 2+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 1+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ goals | 7% |
| Tim Weah: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Folarin Balogun: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 1+ goals | 2% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Gio Reyna: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Tim Weah: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Gio Reyna: 4+ goals + assists | 1% |
| Malik Tillman: 4+ goals + assists | 1% |
| Tim Weah: 4+ goals + assists | 1% |
| Alejandro Zendejas: 4+ goals + assists | 1% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ goals + assists | 1% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ assists | 1% |
| Weston McKennie: 4+ goals + assists | 1% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Tim Weah: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Edin Džeko: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Edin Džeko: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Haji Wright: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Sebastian Berhalter: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ assists | 0% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Christian Pulisic: 4+ goals + assists | 0% |
| Edin Džeko: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Edin Džeko: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Kerim Alajbegović: 2+ assists | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to united states vs. bosnia and herzegovina - player props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between United States and Bosnia and Herzegovina, scheduled for July 1 at 8:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina - Player Props. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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