Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| MTK Budapest O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| MTK Budapest O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Puskas Akademia FC Felcsut O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Puskas Akademia FC Felcsut O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Puskas Akademia FC Felcsut O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Puskas Akademia FC Felcsut 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Puskas Akademia FC Felcsut 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| MTK Budapest 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| MTK Budapest 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Puskas Akademia FC Felcsut 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| MTK Budapest (-1.5) | 0% |
| Puskas Akademia FC Felcsut (-1.5) | 0% |
| MTK Budapest (-2.5) | 0% |
| Puskas Akademia FC Felcsut (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| MTK Budapest O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| MTK Budapest 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| MTK Budapest 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Puskas Akademia FC Felcsut 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
MTK Budapest and Puskás Akadémia meet in Hungary NB I, and the historical matchup does not point to a one-sided contest. Across recent head-to-head datasets, the clubs are close: one source shows 24 meetings with MTK edging the series 11-10-3, while others have Puskás slightly ahead or level on wins, which is enough to explain why a blanket *0% YES* price on “more markets” can still be fragile if the market is expecting a routine home/away pattern to repeat.[1][2][4] The latest comparable results also include several tight draws, including 2-2 and 1-1 meetings in 2025 and 2026, which keeps draw-related and totals-related derivatives in play rather than making the fixture look structurally settled.[16]
For traders, the main catalysts are the confirmed line-ups, especially whether either side protects key attackers or rotates after a congested early-season schedule. The live match page is the best place to watch for late changes, since Hungary domestic fixtures can move quickly once team sheets are released and any absence in defence or midfield can shift cards, corners, and goal-related sub-markets more than the main result line.[3][11] Recent statistical snapshots also suggest a game that can produce volume: MTK’s recent head-to-head numbers show around 15 shots per match and 5.8 on target, while Puskás have been slightly lower on shot volume but efficient enough to punish open games, so any late injury or suspension news is more likely to affect the “more markets” basket than a straight win price.[12][13]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for MTK Budapest vs. Puskas Akademia FC Felcsut - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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