Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Pisa SC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Empoli FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Pisa SC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Empoli FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Pisa SC O/U 1.5 | 68% |
| O/U 2.5 | 60% |
| Empoli FC O/U 1.5 | 59% |
| Pisa SC O/U 2.5 | 55% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Pisa SC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Pisa SC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Empoli FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Empoli FC O/U 2.5 | 35% |
| Pisa SC (-2.5) | 30% |
| Pisa SC (-1.5) | 22% |
| O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| Empoli FC (-1.5) | 14% |
| O/U 4.5 | 6% |
| Empoli FC (-2.5) | 1% |
| O/U 5.5 | 1% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Pisa SC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Empoli FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Empoli FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Pisa and Empoli meet in the Coppa Italia on 17 August, a fixture that carries weight for both Tuscan clubs as they prepare for the 2024–25 Serie A campaign. The 22% implied probability for "more markets" reflects uncertainty around what additional betting options will be offered post-match or whether the primary fixture itself generates sufficient trading volume to justify secondary market expansion. Coppa Italia early rounds typically see lighter liquidity than league fixtures, particularly when both teams are mid-tier Serie A operators without European commitments.
Historically, Pisa and Empoli have traded competitive results in recent seasons, with neither club establishing dominance in head-to-head encounters. Both finished mid-table in the 2023–24 Serie A campaign, suggesting comparable squad depth and tactical maturity. The probability discount may reflect structural factors: Coppa Italia markets often fragment across platforms, and secondary markets depend on initial fixture liquidity thresholds that smaller derbies struggle to meet. Traders should note that Coppa Italia scheduling can shift, and fixture postponements or rescheduling have previously triggered market cancellations or settlement delays.
Watch for team news releases in the week prior, particularly injury confirmations or squad rotation announcements. Pisa manager Filippo Inzaghi and Empoli's coaching staff typically field experimental line-ups in cup competitions, which can suppress trading interest if key players are rested. Fixture confirmation and broadcast arrangements—whether the match airs on mainstream channels or streaming-only platforms—will influence whether bookmakers and prediction markets justify the operational cost of secondary market deployment.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pisa SC vs. Empoli FC - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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