Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| ITF M15 Astana Men: Ivan Gretskiy vs Yu Tanaka | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| ITF M15 Astana Men: Ivan Gretskiy vs Yu Tanaka Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| ITF M15 Astana Men: Ivan Gretskiy vs Yu Tanaka Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| ITF M15 Astana Men: Ivan Gretskiy vs Yu Tanaka Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| ITF M15 Astana Men: Ivan Gretskiy vs Yu Tanaka Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| ITF M15 Astana Men: Ivan Gretskiy vs Yu Tanaka Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 1% |
| ITF M15 Astana Men: Ivan Gretskiy vs Yu Tanaka Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 1% |
| ITF M15 Astana Men: Ivan Gretskiy vs Yu Tanaka Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| ITF M15 Astana Men: Ivan Gretskiy vs Yu Tanaka Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| ITF M15 Astana Men: Ivan Gretskiy vs Yu Tanaka Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| ITF M15 Astana Men: Ivan Gretskiy vs Yu Tanaka Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| ITF M15 Astana Men: Ivan Gretskiy vs Yu Tanaka Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| ITF M15 Astana Men: Ivan Gretskiy vs Yu Tanaka Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| ITF M15 Astana Men: Ivan Gretskiy vs Yu Tanaka Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| ITF M15 Astana Men: Ivan Gretskiy vs Yu Tanaka Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to itf m15 astana men: ivan gretskiy vs yu tanaka. This market refers to the tennis match between Ivan Gretskiy and Yu Tanaka in the ITF M15 Astana Men, Qualifying, originally scheduled for July 28, 2026 at 1:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Iva…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for ITF M15 Astana Men: Ivan Gretskiy vs Yu Tanaka. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Trade ITF M15 Astana Men: Ivan Gretskiy vs Yu Tanaka on World Cup 2026 Favorites
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →