Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
55% | 45% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
55% | 45% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| FC Seoul | 55% |
| Draw | 31% |
| Pohang Steelers FC | 17% |
Market context
FC Seoul face Pohang Steelers in K League 1 at Seoul World Cup Stadium, with the market sitting at a 55% YES price for the home side. The price is broadly in line with home-leaning pre-match models: one recent preview makes FC Seoul the favourite at 1.92, while another gives Seoul a 67% win rate across 18 league matches, against Pohang’s 44%[4][5]. That backdrop suggests the current probability is not demanding a major upset; it is pricing a home advantage more than a dominant mismatch[4][5].
For traders, the main line movers are likely to be the confirmed XIs, any late injury or suspension omissions, and whether FC Seoul can preserve the attacking edge reflected in market previews that have leaned towards goals rather than a tight low-scoring game[1][6]. The fixture is listed as not started, so final team news remains the key dependency before kick-off[2][3][10]. If either side rotates heavily, or if a usual starter is absent from the published line-up, the market can shift quickly because the pre-match edge is not especially wide[7][8].
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $518K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for FC Seoul vs. Pohang Steelers FC. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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