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LoL: LYON vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs

How the prediction market is pricing "LoL: LYON vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

Match Winner 74% First Blood in Game 1? 68% Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? 68% Game 2 Winner 67% Volume: $170K Liquidity: $283K Closes: 4 Jul 2026
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LoL: LYON vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
74% 26% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
74% 26% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Match Winner74%
First Blood in Game 1?68%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?68%
Game 2 Winner67%
Game 1 Winner66%
Game 3 Winner66%
O/U 3.5 Games66%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?62%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon61%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon60%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon60%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs FURIA Esports (+1.5)57%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3?56%
Odd/Even Total Kills54%
Odd/Even Total Kills53%
Game 4 Winner51%
Odd/Even Total Kills51%
Any Player Penta Kill51%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4?50%
Any Player Penta Kill49%
Odd/Even Total Kills48%
Odd/Even Total Kills48%
First Blood in Game 4?48%
First Blood in Game 3?48%
First Blood in Game 2?48%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4?48%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4?48%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?48%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon47%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon46%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?46%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?43%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?43%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?42%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3?40%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor38%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors38%
Any Player Quadra Kill38%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor38%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors38%
Any Player Quadra Kill38%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor37%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors37%
Any Player Quadra Kill37%
Game Handicap: LY (-2.5) vs FURIA Esports (+2.5)31%
O/U 4.5 Games28%
Any Player Penta Kill28%
Any Player Penta Kill28%
Any Player Penta Kill28%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 74% probability to lol: lyon vs furia esports (bo5) - mid-season invitational playoffs. This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket quarterfinal 2 match between LYON and FURIA Esports in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 3 at 11:00PM ET. This market will…

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for LoL: LYON vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
When do sports markets resolve?
Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
and

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