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LoL: LYON vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs

"LoL: LYON vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs" — live football odds plus comparison across the four major prediction venues.

O/U 3.5 Games 73% Match Winner 66% Game 1 Winner 60% Game 2 Winner 59% Volume: $112K Liquidity: $295K Closes: 8 Jul 2026
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LoL: LYON vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 73% 27% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 73% 27% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
O/U 3.5 Games73%
Match Winner66%
Game 1 Winner60%
Game 2 Winner59%
Game 3 Winner59%
Game 4 Winner57%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?56%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4?55%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?55%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?55%
Odd/Even Total Kills54%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon51%
Odd/Even Total Kills51%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon51%
Odd/Even Total Kills51%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon51%
Any Player Quadra Kill51%
Any Player Quadra Kill51%
Any Player Penta Kill51%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
First Blood in Game 4?50%
First Blood in Game 2?50%
First Blood in Game 3?50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor49%
Any Player Quadra Kill49%
Any Player Penta Kill49%
Any Player Quadra Kill49%
Any Player Penta Kill49%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor49%
Any Player Quadra Kill49%
Any Player Penta Kill49%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon49%
Odd/Even Total Kills49%
First Blood in Game 1?49%
Odd/Even Total Kills46%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?45%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Secret Whales (+1.5)44%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4?44%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3?44%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?40%
O/U 4.5 Games34%
Game Handicap: LY (-2.5) vs Team Secret Whales (+2.5)23%
Game Handicap: TSW (-1.5) vs LYON (+1.5)22%
Game Handicap: TSW (-2.5) vs LYON (+2.5)7%

Market context

The LoL: LYON vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs prediction market currently prices this outcome at 73% YES. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket quarterfinal 1 match between LYON and Team Secret Whales in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 8 at 4:00AM ET. This market …

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for LoL: LYON vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
When do sports markets resolve?
Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
Can I import form data and lineups?
This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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