Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via World Cup 2026 Favorites) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| Game 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Game Handicap: MKOI (-1.5) vs Team Heretics (+1.5) | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 100% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 90% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 90% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 90% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 21.5 in Game 2? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 18.5 in Game 2? | 90% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 10% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 10% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 10% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 10% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 10% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 10% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 15.5 in Game 1? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 21.5 in Game 1? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 18.5 in Game 1? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of lol: movistar koi vs team heretics (bo3) - lec regular season. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the LoL match between Movistar KOI and Team Heretics in the LEC Regular Season, initially scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 10:15 AM ET. This market will reso…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Heretics (BO3) - LEC Regular Season. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
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